The thing about sports is there is no such thing as a foregone conclusion. Sure everyone will claim they can tell. But sports betting would not exist if sports was actually predictable. We hold and watch competitions because both the expected and unexpected can be amazing to witness.
Writing or many creative pursuits can be like that. You set targets and goals and some days you show up and are a star who exceeded expectations. And some days, not so much. You try to practice and learn your best conditions so wherever possible you have more good days than bad. But some days it snows in the middle of your half pipe competition or someone nudges you off the short track and you just don't know. Even on the publishing side you'll hear stories of trains full of books falling into lakes or covers that got banned by one of the stores or some rave going viral. Wildly unpredictable things happen every day. You show up as ready as you can be for what happens next.
